Alberta election an uphill struggle for Tories’ rivals
Published by TheStar.com - Canada
Reigning party may be vulnerable on some issues, but March 3 provincial vote is still theirs to lose
Kelsea Purschke would like to see a party other than the Tories in government in Alberta. But she’s not holding her breath.
For 37 years, the Progressive Conservatives have run the provincial government, five years longer than she has been alive.
“I would like to see a change,” said Purschke, a daycare worker in Edmonton, “but what I don’t hear from people are complaints.”
When Premier Ed Stelmach called an election this week, the fourth consecutive PC leader to take the province to the polls, he did so from a comfortable position.
For many people, the Tories are the only game in town, said University of Lethbridge political scientist Geoffrey Hale.
“It would require an earthquake of California proportion to get voters to the point where the Tories won’t be re-elected,” said Hale. “The seismic plates are moving, but they’re not moving that much yet.”
Still, while it’s doubtful that either the Liberals or the NDP, both well behind in the polls, will be able to upset the Tories, the government is not invulnerable.
In Calgary and Edmonton, there is such anger over the growing number of homeless, and crumbling roads and hospitals, that it’s almost certain Stelmach will lose some seats on March 3.
Stelmach, who took over from Ralph Klein in late 2006, was rumoured to be itching to call an election in early December after he explained the province’s new energy royalty regime. But his plan seemingly pleased no one, with critics saying he is too beholden to oil companies and the industry upset about higher royalty rates.
His government has also walked a tightrope on climate change. Stelmach has said the province’s greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise for another 12 years before they decline. Any quicker curbing of emissions would trigger economic consequences throughout the country, he maintains.
Both announcements, three months apart, had little effect on his poll numbers, with the Tories enjoying about 33 per cent support – approximately the same percentage of voters who are undecided.
That could change in the weeks ahead, as so-far latent issues such as a labour shortage, long warned about by business, begin to emerge, said Hale. The growing discontent between landowners and the energy industry may also be drawn out, invoking the broader context of land use and the environment.
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft this week promised if he became premier the province will cap greenhouse gas emissions by 2013. Liberals also plan to re-regulate electricity prices, fund more policing and tackle the housing crisis.
When the election was called, the Tories had 60 seats in the 83-seat legislature. The Liberals had 20, the NDP 4. There was one member of the right-wing and mainly rural Wildrose Alliance Party, one Independent and one vacant seat.
In Calgary, NDP candidate Tyler Kinch believes there are more compelling reasons than ever to vote out the Tories. Few average working people, he said, are reaping the rewards of the province’s wealth.
“In Alberta, they say we’re debt free, but schools are crumbling.”
The key to election-night victory could be the support of the large segment of undecided voters, said Lois Harder, who teaches political science at the University of Alberta. “The issue in a province with a long political dynasty and a healthy economy is whether people are going to be motivated to vote.”
The Tories have tried to plug the leaks in their fortress. The party vowed $120 billion over the next 20 years to shore up roads and build hospitals and low-income housing. The much-despised health-care premium, about $1,000 a year for a family of four, is being phased out.
But health care could emerge as the sleeper issue, especially in Calgary where as many as one in four people can’t find a family doctor.
“It’s the little things you think about during a campaign,” said Bryan Haynes, a financial planner, as he smoked a thin cigar during a workday break. “Things like the health-care premiums and whether your wages are better than they were a few years ago.”
Two decades older than daycare worker Kelsea Purschke, but like her a lifelong resident of Edmonton, Haynes does remember a time before the Tories, when Ernest Manning was premier.
“I can go back to the Manning days and I can remember people saying then that the Socreds would always stay in power,” said Haynes. “So it can be done.”